Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 国产一福利 Prediction Center reported that El Ni帽o conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are likely to continue into early 2007. Ocean temperatures increased remarkably in the equatorial Pacific during the last two weeks. “Currently, weak El Ni帽o conditions exist, but there is a potential for this event to strengthen into a moderate event by winter,” said Vernon Kousky, NOAA’s lead El Ni帽o forecaster.
Some impacts from the developing El Ni帽o are already evident in the pattern of tropical precipitation. During the past 30 days, drier-than-average conditions have been observed across all of Indonesia, Malaysia and most of the Philippines, which are usually the first areas to experience ENSO-related impacts. The dryness can be expected to continue, on average, for the remainder of 2006, NOAA said.
Also, the development of weak El Ni帽o conditions helps explain why this Atlantic hurricane season has been less active than was previously expected. El Ni帽o typically acts to suppress hurricane activity by increasing the vertical wind shear over the Caribbean Sea region, NOAA indicated. However, at this time the El Ni帽o impacts on Atlantic hurricanes are small.
“We are still in the peak months of the Atlantic hurricane season, and conditions remain generally conducive for hurricane formation,” said Gerry Bell, NOAA’s lead seasonal hurricane forecaster.
Typical El Ni帽o effects are likely to develop over North America during the upcoming winter season. Those include warmer-than-average temperatures over western and central Canada, and over the western and northern United States. Wetter-than-average conditions are likely over portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, while drier-than-average conditions can be expected in the Ohio Valley and the Pacific Northwest.
The term El Ni帽o refers to the large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate phenomenon linked to a periodic warming in sea surface temperatures across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (between approximately the date line and 120 degrees west). El Ni帽o represents the warm phase of the El Ni帽o/Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, cycle, and is sometimes referred to as a Pacific warm episode. El Ni帽o originally referred to an annual warming of sea surface temperatures along the west coast of tropical South America.
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Source: NOAA
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